Calling 2014

Once considered to be a crucial battle between Narendra Modi’s credibility and leadership of Rahul Gandhi, it is becomingly clear that a Modi-led BJP government is pretty much assured. The emergence of AAP, now aggressively claiming a seat the national table, have skewed earlier assumptions of state election outcomes, pre- and post-election poll ties, etc.

But, by far and large, projections still favour of BJP, with the party securing a majority in many Northern states. Pro-BJP swings like the one witnessed in Rajasthan, a better bellwether than Delhi in the recent 5-state polls, are still centred around a Modi wave. So, interestingly BJP’s move to elect Modi as its PM-candidate has proven advantageous.

But we can no longer assume that BJP will gain a higher vote share from: 

•  Urban areas,  
•  Youth
•  Upper OBCs
•  A high voter turnout.

The past few days have shown AAP’s craving for a larger role. In fact nothing illustrates this desire than their daring Congress to take them on.

This gambit has only served to buttress the current negative sentiment against the Congress, especially on the voters who were disillusioned by issues such as corruption, inflation. The loss in Congress’s vote share will finally prove beneficial to the BJP.

In my view, the Congress has lost its ability to retain its 10% lead, in share of votes, over the BJP. And to assume Congress and its allies will make the 240-270 mark will mean that Congress will have to get 100-120. I don’t see that happening

As far as an NDA goes a plan for 272+ means BJP has to get 200 seats or more of the 320+ seats it has earmarked for concentrated campaigns. 

This is crucial. This too is difficult, but not improbable, because BJP plans, or has been forced, to fight alone, and will need post-poll ties. BJP’s fortunes will depend on UP & Bihar, This despite AAP staking a claim for Haryana and the plans of Nitish Kumar and Mayawati to go it alone.

Other Hindi heartland states, MP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat will all finally become part of the NDA-2014.

Maharashtra, though a stronghold of RSS, also has Pawar proving to be both a tough contender and finally a post-poll ally of BJP. Punjab will, I feel, end up on the same side as will TN, where the votes will go 65-35 to AIADMK-DMK.

AP and Telengana hold little cheer for either Congress or BJP, though BJP may be able to convince the Seemandhra MPs to support Modi.

Karnataka, Kerala, Bengal and J&K are more difficult to call, though for different reasons. J&K, whoever wins though Omar Abdullah’s chances are pretty bright, will not or can not afford to join the NDA boat. Karnataka despite Yeddurappa’s re-entrance may still go the Congress way completely. W. Bengal and Kerala present interesting pictures because of their ideological leanings, Congress's showing in the latter and the Mamata Bannerjee’s TMC stand.

So a 2014 avatar of NDA or Third Front dominating Government are both equally possible. But I strongly feel a BJP-led NDA government is more likely as BJP will win 155-170 seats. Post-poll attempts will attract coalition partners and finally 220 seats.

If BJP and its pre-poll partners get less than 200 the Third-Front becomes an important factor. If both Congress and BJP cannot manage to get the 273-mark, the former may still cobble a government. Of course, this will change if Congress meets the 100 seat expectations.

Above all events over the past four days, a BJP mission statement, Congress’s disinclination to put Rahul forward and the AAP’s aggressive posturing, will help BJP by drawing in more voters who are tired of socialist agendas. The hope of better governance will finally help BJP through.